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User Topic: Stats on reoccurrence?
PointMan
♂ Member
Member # 38577
Default  Posted: 3:31 PM, September 19th (Thursday), 2013View ProfileEdit MessagePrivate MessageHomepage

Im now 9 months since dday and things have been going remarkably well. As an analytical person I was wondering if anyone has any statistic's on the WS's odds of staying monogamous for the rest of the marriage. There is an old saying "Once a cheater, always a cheater". Want to make sure that I'm not just wasting my time in R if its highly likely that another A will occur down the road.


DDay: 1/16/13
ME: 49
WW: 43
2 boys: 9 and 13
Trying to R.
Married 15 years.
"keeping the faith"

Posts: 77 | Registered: Feb 2013 | From: NE
wifehad5
♂ Moderator
Member # 15162
Default  Posted: 3:42 PM, September 19th (Thursday), 2013View ProfileEdit MessagePrivate MessageHomepage

It really depends. What has she done since D-day? Is she working on herself? Fixing what caused her to cheat in the first place?


FBH - 42
FWW - 43 (BrokenRoad)
2 kids 7&12

The people you do your life with shape the life you live


Posts: 37397 | Registered: Jun 2007 | From: Michigan
suckstobeme
♀ Member
Member # 30853
Default  Posted: 3:46 PM, September 19th (Thursday), 2013View ProfileEdit MessagePrivate MessageHomepage

I don't have any concrete stats. I remember my IC telling me that about 75% of people want to try to R after infidelity if given the opportunity. I don't know how many out of that percentage to go on to live an A free life.

What I can tell you is that past behavior - whatever that entails - is a good indicator of future behavior. So, if behavior has been not so good in the past, it may not be so good in the future either. That is, unless the person does the work it takes to break the trends and recognize why he or she engaged in that behavior.

I guess what I'm saying is that if the perception is that R is going well because the A has been swept under the rug and your spouse is not taking every step imaginable to work on herself, as well as the M, I would be cautious. There are plenty of good people who make bad choices and plenty of those people are able to make permanent changes. They have to want it though and they have to be willing to truly face themselves. Since cheating is a cowardly act, they have to become real brave. Read some of the posts in our wayward section and it's easy to see how difficult it can be for people to face what they've done and the damage they've caused. I can see why it would be so much easier to rug sweep, blame shift and compartmentalize.

Stats don't really matter. It's all about the make up of the two people involved in that particular M and what each is willing to do to rebuild what has been lost.


BW - me
ExWH - "that one"
D - 2011
You get what you put in, and people get what they deserve.
Hard as it may be, try to never give the OP any of your power or head space.

Posts: 2840 | Registered: Jan 2011
PointMan
♂ Member
Member # 38577
Default  Posted: 4:00 PM, September 19th (Thursday), 2013View ProfileEdit MessagePrivate MessageHomepage

What has she done since dday? Recomitted to me and the family in every way. A completely different person now.
Is she fixing herself and what caused her to cheat in the first place? Not really. A few counseling sessions but thats about it.
Things are going so well now that Im afraid to push her into counseling for fear that it will ruin the solid progress we've made.

What im rally looking for is something like this:
__% of people who are caught unfaithful in their marriage (and the marriage survived) will recommit adultery sometime later.


DDay: 1/16/13
ME: 49
WW: 43
2 boys: 9 and 13
Trying to R.
Married 15 years.
"keeping the faith"

Posts: 77 | Registered: Feb 2013 | From: NE
Razor
♂ Member
Member # 16345
Default  Posted: 4:12 PM, September 19th (Thursday), 2013View ProfileEdit MessagePrivate MessageHomepage

Watch patterns of behavior. If after Dday her mode is to go into *damage control* until things seem fine to her she may then revert back to her old (dangerous) habits. So even if her patterns change after Dday dont sit back and think all is well. People easily fall back into old patterns and if that pattern is risky behavior then the chance of another affair is high.

Stats can be manipulated to prove anything you want to prove. The only stat that matters is the one that is about your WW.


Forgive and forget = Relive and regret.

Hope in reality is the worst of all evils because it prolongs the torments of man.
Friedrich Nietzsche


Posts: 3483 | Registered: Sep 2007
pewpewpew
♀ Member
Member # 38116
Default  Posted: 4:47 PM, September 19th (Thursday), 2013View ProfileEdit MessagePrivate MessageHomepage

Nothing in life is ever 100% foolproof.

That said - a lot of times a remorseful WS truly gets the devastation they caused. And never wants that hurt for their BS - again.

Relationships are fragile. You have to work hard. Always.
Be open, communicate and enjoy each other.

Sure, it could happen again. But, if you were to start over with someone new, you may experience infidelity again.

I love my WH. I will do everything it takes to repair or M - but if it ever were to happen again - I know the signs. And I will move forward in my life without him. I know I could do it - I've done the work on myself to become stronger. Independent.

Good luck to you.


ME: 30
WH: 35

Fool me once - Shame on you. Fool me twice - pack your shit and get out.


Posts: 310 | Registered: Jan 2013
Holly-Isis
♀ Member
Member # 13447
Default  Posted: 5:07 PM, September 19th (Thursday), 2013View ProfileEdit MessagePrivate MessageHomepage


What im rally looking for is something like this:
__% of people who are caught unfaithful in their marriage (and the marriage survived) will recommit adultery sometime later.

But that all depends on the WS. Has s/he worked on their issues? Owned their actions? Learned how to establish boundaries? Implement boundaries? Prioritize their spouse, M and family?

Just percentages aren't enough. It's like asking what percentage of people survive cancer and including those that don't get treatment.

Things are going so well now that Im afraid to push her into counseling for fear that it will ruin the solid progress we've made.

I was the same. Now I'm in limbo. I may be able to heal on my own, but I can never get to the place I need to be in the am if MrH doesn't do his part to deal with his choices.

If you (general you) have to be afraid of insisting your WS does the emotional digging in R, then it's not really R, IME. A true M means you can ask your spouse for help in repairing the M without fear. A loving spouse would WANT to do whatever it takes to rebuild what has been broken. After all, if you can be betrayed and still stay, it is not asking much for her to do her part and go to IC.


"Being in love" first moved them to promise fidelity: this quieter love enables them to keep the promise. *CS Lewis*

Posts: 11229 | Registered: Jan 2007 | From: Just a fool in limbo
jimbo25319
♂ Member
Member # 31891
Default  Posted: 12:47 AM, September 20th (Friday), 2013View ProfileEdit MessagePrivate MessageHomepage

My WW lasted a whole 30 days before she started A #2.

She moved in with the OM and today she finally retrieved the rest of her stuff out of the house.

Everyone keeps saying she'll "see the light". I know her better than anyone. She's gone and ain't never coming back.


Posts: 480 | Registered: Apr 2011 | From: Maryland
stronger08
♂ Member
Member # 16953
Default  Posted: 4:24 AM, September 20th (Friday), 2013View ProfileEdit MessagePrivate MessageHomepage

I read an article once that stated recidivism rates of 77% for people who do nothing to change their habits. It took into consideration a lot of variables like friendships for one. It stated if the cheater still pals around with the same people who knew about and/or endorsed the behaviors. What the cheater has done to work on themselves IE self esteem, FOO, past abuse issues etc. What I took from it was that if they do nothing the rate of 77% holds true. But if they are proactive in finding out the proverbial "WHYS" that percentage drops dramatically. What I liked about the article was that the author went deeply into the social aspect of infidelity. She said that people who have cheated and do not want to repeat the behaviors must take an approach much like folks with substance abuse do. They must first admit their indiscretions, set up boundaries with the opposite sex, watch for trigger situations like people, places and things and avoid them if possible. It also went deeply into family behaviors as well. If folks come from an environment where infidelity is accepted they are more likely to cheat and cheat again. She also stated that like substance abusers the cheater needs to bottom out. Again what I took from it was that if you the BS is always there to clean up her messes and not enforce any consequences chances are she will cheat again. I've been searching Google for an hour and cant find the article. I read it many years ago and don't remember the author. There was so much more in the story. Good luck my friend.


You cant eat soup with chopsticks.

Posts: 5730 | Registered: Nov 2007
HardenMyHeart
♂ Member
Member # 15902
Default  Posted: 9:10 AM, September 20th (Friday), 2013View ProfileEdit MessagePrivate MessageHomepage

I was wondering if anyone has any statistic's on the WS's odds of staying monogamous for the rest of the marriage.

I'm a stats kind of guy as well, but the question you are asking is to broad brushed to provide you with anything meaningful. For example, if I knew the percentage of people in the US that are impacted by tornadoes, but I lived in Alaska, I probably would not be too concerned about whatever the percentage is. In order for the infidelity statistics to be meaningful for you, you need to understand your WW's motivations for the affair, and what went "wrong" in the first place.

I would like to suggest you read the book:
Uncoupling: Turning Points in Intimate Relationships by Diane Vaughan

This is not a book about infidelity. However, it will provide insight about where your relationship became derailed and help you identify pitfalls in the future. This book was written for therapists, but is easily comprehended by laymen as well.

Want to make sure that I'm not just wasting my time in R if its highly likely that another A will occur down the road.

You can't control the future or the actions of another, so don't even go there. Do your best each day to be the best husband you can be and create the kind of marriage you can be proud of.


Me: BH, Her: FWW - Long Term EA/PA
d-day: June 25, 2007
Married 30 years, Reconciled

Inner peace begins the moment you choose not to allow another person or event to control your emotions.


Posts: 5695 | Registered: Aug 2007
7yrsflushed
♂ Member
Member # 32258
Default  Posted: 9:26 AM, September 20th (Friday), 2013View ProfileEdit MessagePrivate MessageHomepage

Is she fixing herself and what caused her to cheat in the first place? Not really. A few counseling sessions but thats about it.
As others stated stats really won't help because each case is unique. Even if the stats said the reocurrence rate was 1%, your wife could be in the 1%. The real issue is if they don't do the work to truly figure out why they did what they did then your WS like mine is nothing more than a dry adulterer. The devastation may be enough to shock your wife into temporarily changing but what happens when times get tough again or some other life altering event happens? Will she fall back on old coping patterns that lead to the A in the first place? Without doing the work to fix themselves they are dry adulterers and you end up walking on eggshells for a very long time always wondering what may or may not set her off. You kind of already have started walking on eggshells.

Things are going so well now that Im afraid to push her into counseling for fear that it will ruin the solid progress we've made.
Your afraid to push her into looking at herself because it will ruin progress or cause her to regress or cheat again.

No stats will make you feel better. Her doing the real work and figuring out exactly what made her cheat may make you feel safer in the M. If she never figured out why then the conditions are still in place for her to possibly do it again. That's doesn't always happen but if you find yourself walking on eggshells more and more, worried about "setting her off" then eventually YOU are going to burn out from worry. I wish you the best.

ETA: If you keep reading around the site notice how many of us have multiple DDay's. While it's not a given, multiple Ddays happen when the WS doesn't work through their issues. My STBXW had her 1st A 1 yr after we got married. Her 2nd A was several years later and was 3 yr LTA with a coworker. I didn't find out about the 1st A until after DDay on the 2nd A. My point is my STBX was a dry adulterer for years but since she never worked through her issues eventually her broken coping skills led her into another A. She couldn't or wouldn't figure out her whys and do the work so I refused to stick around for the eventual 3rd Dday.

[This message edited by 7yrsflushed at 9:31 AM, September 20th (Friday)]


D-day 5/24/11
BH = Me
2 children
The first true sense of calm I felt in YEARS was when I filed for D...
Divorced 9/2/14 and loving life!

Posts: 1912 | Registered: May 2011 | From: VA
heforgotme
♀ Member
Member # 38391
Default  Posted: 9:53 AM, September 20th (Friday), 2013View ProfileEdit MessagePrivate MessageHomepage

__% of people who are caught unfaithful in their marriage (and the marriage survived) will recommit adultery sometime later.

As far as I can tell, the stats on this are inconsistent. I have seen 22% and 55%.

But I would be willing to bet that it's waaaaaaaaay lower than that amongst remorseful waywards. I can't imagine anyone who's been through this ever thinking it would be worth it again.


D-Day 11/15/12
5 month PA
Married 20 years, 3 kids
All good is hard. All evil is easy. Dying, losing, cheating, and mediocrity is easy. Stay away from easy.
- Scott Alexander
It was the day I thought I'd never get through - Daughtry

Posts: 1083 | Registered: Feb 2013 | From: FL
MoreWould
♂ Member
Member # 37982
Default  Posted: 10:50 AM, September 20th (Friday), 2013View ProfileEdit MessagePrivate MessageHomepage

I work in a very technical field, and the rule of thumb in situations where there is not good data is that half goes one way, half goes the other.

Then, you do two things. The first is, you look for more data and adjust the 50:50 split based on what you learn. The second is you think really hard about the dividing line between the "This" and "That" categories.

Apply this methodology to A's, and I would say that half the waywards cheat again, and half are so shocked by their guilt, shame and the effect on their spouse that they never cheat again.

But what you want to know is which half is yours in. That's where all the "did they do the work?" questions come in. It's also where hypervigilance comes in, looking for more data.

In my case, I'm 90% sure my FWW is permanently a "Former", but I will never be 100% sure of anything ever again. That sucks, but as good as it gets.


Me BH/WH, 63
Her WW/BW, 62
Her DDay Dec 1976 OMW at the door
My DDay, ~ 2years later, confessed ONS the next day
R via "Sweeping under the rug"
Still married, 40 yrs, mostly OK
2 kids, 24 & 20

Posts: 357 | Registered: Jan 2013 | From: Colorado
PrincessPeach06
♀ Member
Member # 39588
Default  Posted: 10:55 AM, September 20th (Friday), 2013View ProfileEdit MessagePrivate MessageHomepage

Well if you are gonna go strictly by stats I would say there is a 100% chance my H will cheat again.

However, I have seen a new man emerge in the past 4 months. One who is honest and loving and communicates with me. Who has done hard work on himself and continues to do so and has addressed his FOO issues head on. If this "new" man continues the course I believe he will remain faithful despite the past issues.


Me (BS): 35
Him (fWS): 36
Married 16 years 6 kids ages 15-6
DDay #1 (EA) July '08
DDay #2 (EA/ONS- different OW) May 15, 2013

Finally this is R 8/14/13

"Forgiving is a journey; the deeper the wound, the longer the journey".


Posts: 299 | Registered: Jun 2013
sparkysable
♀ Member
Member # 3703
Default  Posted: 11:00 AM, September 20th (Friday), 2013View ProfileEdit MessagePrivate MessageHomepage

I've been on SI for a long time. I've seen a lot of reoccurrence and false R here. I feel like reoccurrence is pretty high, but that might just be my perception, and the fact that I hang out in divorce/separation forum.

There were 6 years between OW#1 and OW#2 (the only 2 that I *know* of) My H was the most remorseful person you ever saw. We went to counseling, he read books, he went to our families and friends and cried after OW#1 trying to get their help in getting me back.

He held it together (apparently, but who knows) for 6 years, until OW#2. If there was ever anyone who I thought would never do it again, it was my XWH.


D-day OW#1 2/2004; R for 6 years; D-day OW#2 5/2010

Marriages that start this way, stepping over the bodies of loved ones as the giddy couple walks down the aisle, are not likely to last.


Posts: 3410 | Registered: Mar 2004 | From: NY
aesir
♂ Member
Member # 17210
Default  Posted: 11:53 AM, September 20th (Friday), 2013View ProfileEdit MessagePrivate MessageHomepage

There are two answers to this question, depending on what kind of work and changes the WS makes.

The answers for the two particular cases are:

Damn near 0%
&
Damn near 100%


Your mileage may vary... in accordance with the prophecy.

Do not back up. Severe tire damage.


Posts: 14924 | Registered: Nov 2007 | From: Winnipeg
Simple
♀ Member
Member # 18814
Default  Posted: 12:50 PM, September 20th (Friday), 2013View ProfileEdit MessagePrivate MessageHomepage

"Once a cheater, always a cheater".

This is 100% true IF the wayward did not figure out the root cause of the problem.

As much as we want statistics to help us feel comfortable, it's really not logical to rely on it for our healing.

You said:

Want to make sure that I'm not just wasting my time in R if its highly likely that another A will occur down the road.

There is no guarantee. All we can do is ensure we are healing the correct way and insists on boundaries and enforce consequences. If it helps you, my FWH cheated on me multiple times with multiple OW. The shit hit the fan 5 years ago. I finally woke the hell up. With me waking up, he did too, thankfully and he found all the reasons why he is broken. I've made mistakes and I own to it and so did he. We're now in true R 5 years, almost 6 years later...


Love is a choice.

True love is harder to come by than soul mates. True love requires work.

Ignorance can be cured with knowledge. There is no cure for being an idiot.


Posts: 927 | Registered: Mar 2008
PointMan
♂ Member
Member # 38577
Default  Posted: 1:58 PM, September 20th (Friday), 2013View ProfileEdit MessagePrivate MessageHomepage

Thanks so much for all of the great responses. It has become obvious to me that until my WW addresses her issues (Bulemia, mid-life crisis, etc.) that I will be walking on egg shells.
The chances of her stepping out again are greatly reduced if she gets help to repair her issues.
Thanks so much for helping me see this clearly. We will have a talk soon.


DDay: 1/16/13
ME: 49
WW: 43
2 boys: 9 and 13
Trying to R.
Married 15 years.
"keeping the faith"

Posts: 77 | Registered: Feb 2013 | From: NE
heforgotme
♀ Member
Member # 38391
Default  Posted: 8:13 AM, September 23rd (Monday), 2013View ProfileEdit MessagePrivate MessageHomepage

Damn near 0%
&
Damn near 100%

Wow. EXACTLY.


D-Day 11/15/12
5 month PA
Married 20 years, 3 kids
All good is hard. All evil is easy. Dying, losing, cheating, and mediocrity is easy. Stay away from easy.
- Scott Alexander
It was the day I thought I'd never get through - Daughtry

Posts: 1083 | Registered: Feb 2013 | From: FL
Topic Posts: 19

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