You know, statistics don't tell us everything. Women know that if they have a family history of breast cancer, they're at greater risk. What most don't know is that MOST cases of breast cancer arise in women with no family history. There's no security in having no history, really. (If you DO have a history, you can be tested, and make proactive choices to protect your health.)
In terms of trusting new partners (or choosing to stay with the one with the known history), I don't think you can rely on statistics.
The guy who's never cheated can still cheat.
The partner who's been unfaithful in the past may have learned well from the experience and hard work that followed--and may be a wonderful partner.
My personal opinion is that most WSs don't do the hard work to become former waywards. Often, it's because they don't know it's required. The fallout of infidelity is just as shocking to the WS as it is to the BS---no one has a manual for appropriately coping. (If we did, I would not have been the lunatic I was.)
It's not enough to stop cheating. Alcoholics who stop drinking without retooling their thinking via Twelve Steps, IC, and/or rehab retain their faulty thinking processes, making them FAR more vulnerable to recidivism. (It also makes them the same disordered assholes to live with as they were when drinking, only with new problems added.) Smokers who stop smoking, but do not retool their thinking to think of themselves as NONsmokers are at far greater risk of lighting up again.
And cheaters who stop cheating, unless they change the ways they think about themselves/others/relationships AND gather tools to be successful, are likely to cheat again, IMO.
Many cheaters stop. For one reason or another, they find the personal cost of cheating to be too high.
But until they do the work necessary to change the way they think of themselves, others, and relationships, they are still cheaters, in my book. They are "dry drunks." I lived with one for well over 20 years. And coming from an alcoholic FOO, the similarities are astounding.
Those who do that hard work, and become and remain faithful to themselves and others do lose the "cheater" status, in my book. These former waywards are as safe as any partner---and probably safer than many/most.
Sadly, I do think that, among people who have been unfaithful, these are not the norm.
At least not at first. I think there's a learning curve even for those who genuinely want to make the necessary changes. And there are obstacles: lack of (or poor) counselors, not knowing what to do, family opposition, and so on. These can make it very difficult to achieve the necessary changes.
Many, with the right resources and insight, overcome the obstacles. Many don't bother. It's too hard, or too .... <fill in the blank.> The cost of infidelity must become greater than the "benefits." And for many, this does not occur.
I also think there are a lot of white-knucklers and dry "drunks." Some just want to hang on long enough for the pain to "pass," so that "things can go back the way they were." They may be immature. They may have had terrible role models. They may utterly lack coping tools and have no idea how to be in a relationship. Whatever--it doesn't matter, really. The end result is that they are concerned primarily with their own comfort and want things "back the way they were" for minimal effort. And often, they're pissed they can't have their drug of choice, too.
And this group, too, with the right resources and guidance, can become FORMER waywards who respect themselves (first and foremost) and others, and become safe partners. But it takes a LOT of work, and a LOT of help---and sometimes, a LOT of "falling off the wagon" that can be VERY hard for the BS to experience. But they can do it. Their marriages may not survive--but THEY do, and can be safe and healthy partners.
Sadly, I think there is a fairly strong subset of cheaters who have no intention of ever changing. My husband is among them.
There's no test we can administer to evaluate a person's odds of cheating, whether that person has a known history of infidelity or not.
(And frankly, when looking for a new partner, I'd also be looking hard at the known former BSs, because unless WE do some hard work, too, we carry a lot of baggage unfair to a new partner.)