Sorry, all. I sometimes trigger on over-generalizations and what I think is bad thinking. (The prez of my condo has just paid off no interest debt by borrowing at 10%, and he actually says and thinks that cleans up our balance sheet, so I may be triggering here.)
So, isn't what you are saying that a marriage is better after the affair than before the affair just a subjective measurement also?
Exactly.
Bringing probability into it makes the subjective look objective. It's an attempt to change an opinion into a fact, which is a major thinking error.
What measurements are used to measure a marriage "before" and "after" an affair to say that it is better or worse with reconciliation?
Exactly. There are no standard measurements. Some people like the sex, some the companionship, some the cooking/cleaning, some the emotional connect, some ... their spouse's hair color/eyes/chest....
But I'm a lot better placed to judge the quality of my M than anyone else is, just as you all are much better placed to judge the quality of your Ms.
In any case, it's impossible to evaluate probabilities without decent measurements.
... I sort of have to disagree with you on your analysis of the worthlessness of risk analysis when facing probably outcomes.
Umm ... I think I wrote that probabilities are worthless when considering how to respond to infidelity. I think risk management has an important place making many decisions and achieving goals.
What works when responding to infidelity is deciding what one wants, making guesses about what's possible in your specific sitch, deciding what you're willing to do, and doing that.
To heal from being betrayed, one has to do one's own work. What SI can help with is supporting people in taking responsibility for themselves and acting in their own best interests, as they define 'best interests' for themselves.
The fact that each individual has to act for themself makes statistics a distraction, not a help.
My advanced studies were in statistics and risk management. While we don't have reliable statistics on marriage reconciliation outcomes, because they are so subjective, we do know that approximately 50% of first time marriages in the Western World end in divorce.
How many of the people entering 1st time Ms think they'll be in the 50% that stay together? Hell, I knew half of Ms failed when I proposed in 1967. The apparent probability made me think a lot about choosing to stick with W2b, but I still took the chance.
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I agree wholeheartedly that BSes will be better off if they consider all their options before choosing D, R, and waiting to get more info. I'd go further and state that if R is potentially desirable, one will be better off if they see positives as well as negatives for each option. But that's an opinion, not a fact.
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I agree that false R is devastation upon devastation. It's often said here that the WS's behavior after d-day kills more Ms than an A in itself.
Gottman may screw up my argument that statistics are meaningless WRT recovering from infidelity.
He and his followers appear to have identified lots of behaviors that seem to support staying or splitting. It does look like a good Gottman-trained therapist can increase the probability of avoiding false R. Alas, how many of us knew about Gottman's work in a timely manner?
I didn't find Gottman until 4 years after d-day. The stuff he wrote confirmed that I had made the right choice. I wish I had read him much earlier - I would have been a lot less afraid that I was wasting my time.
I think SI tries to help prevent false R. Adding some Gottman to our recommended reading list might provide some actual help.
[This message edited by SI Staff at 6:26 PM, Sunday, February 5th]